About: Gianni Hirschmüller

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DAX-Sentiment: The Market Timers

12 February 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). It was no exaggeration to say that professional investors on Boerse Frankfurt’s weekly sentiment panel urgently needed a rebound in stock prices last week. Although this group had steeled themselves for some kind of pullback in January, many would concede that the decline, when it came, was a somewhatContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Crises with Benefits

Investors profit from steep correction to rebuy 29 January 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). It was not obvious why the German DAX index had to fall three percent last Friday. There was no catalyst, no economic data release, for example. Rather there appears to have been a build-up of headwinds for the equity markets that hadContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Where the Air is Thin

DAX investors can envisage 10,000, just not yet 22 January 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Economic forecasters, both public and private, are brimming with optimism. For the first time in years, argue analysts around the globe, the financial headwinds have died down and the risks are moderate. Even the International Monetary Fund, which has been knownContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: What’s up with the DAX now?

Professional investors are unmoved by the fall 4 December 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). November was barely over, but stock market chroniclers already seemed to be writing the tale of the German DAX in 2013 – and it included a rally in the final month of the year. Why not? The blue-chip index had climbed anContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: The Record High IS the News

Investors’ focus remains on a pursuit of the year-end rally 20 November 2013. FRANKFURT. It has been an unusually quiet week for news-flow in the stock markets. Since the major news shocks from the ECB and from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, most of the headlines about central bank policy have been regurgitated. ForContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: There’s no denying a bull market

Domestic investors would like a cheaper entry into the year-end rally   30 October 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). At last, the cheerleaders for the German DAX index have returned. Earlier in the year, even though the equity benchmark had managed a decent performance, and had even recorded a new all-time peak, we had wondered whyContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: DAX welcomes the world’s investors

Germany might be benefitting from global asset re-allocation 23 October 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The undeniably risky decision to add German blue-chips to one’s portfolio just as the US congress embarked on the most bitter budget standoffs in recent history, finally paid off for domestic investors on Boerse Frankfurt’s sentiment panel. Since the start ofContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Thinking the Unthinkable

Optimism shrinks, but not because of US default risk 16 October 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt).This is not the first government shutdown in US history yet, three weeks ago, there were very few market participants who thought matters would come to that. Once the shutdown actually started, and Federal workers were sent home, few thought itContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: No sceptics left to cry ‘wolf’

Threat of mid-October US default, but no crash fears 9 October 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). For second consecutive week, professional investors on Boerse Frankfurt’s weekly sentiment panel have become more upbeat about the outlook for the German DAX index. In fact, this is the first time since early-July that overall optimism, as measured by theContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: US Politics Fail to Rattle DAX Bulls

Investors buy into a shallow market pullback  ”As worrisome as this shutdown might sound to foreign ears, it is not that alien to US politics: it results from a 147 year old law that forbids government officials from incurring any expenses that has not been authorised by Congress. So to prevent anyone risking a fineContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Optimism Shrinks ‘by Default’

Many investors had to change their view, both bulls and bears 25 September 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The German national elections were never a major calendar event for DAX investors. This realisation must have perplexed several market commentators, although it shouldn’t have: over the past 25 years of German elections, the influence on stock pricesContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Bullish, but only just

Sceptics have had to watch their bearish arguments crumble 11 September 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Since last week’s survey, the environment has become somewhat hostile for DAX bears. All of gaping pot-holes in the road they were so afraid the German equity benchmark might plunge headlong into have been impressively sidestepped or speedily repaired. TheContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Syrian Conflict Buries Fed Debate

28 August 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The German economy is flourishing; tax revenues are up; public pension funds are reporting surpluses; and never has the Treasury spent so little to finance government debt. On paper, at least, there is some ground for celebration. Yet, a positive mood among German consumers is still difficult to detect.Continue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: All or nothing

Equity inflows may have forced fund managers’ hand 7 August 2013. FRANKFURT. Domestic institutional DAX investors on Boerse Frankfurt’s weekly sentiment panel have been disenchanted with their market for quite some time now. Overall optimism, as measured by Cognitrend’s Bull/Bear-Index has so deteriorated over the past four weeks it now stands at its lowest levelContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: We Want a Summer Pause!

Investors have learned not to trust rallies like this one 24 July 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Fed chief, Ben Bernanke, was once again the catalyst for a stock market rally over the course of the past survey week. His willingness to show some ‘flexibility’ when it comes to tapering the central bank’s monthly asset purchasesContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: The ‘tapering’ two-step

Domestic investors buy both before and after the Fed Statement 26 June 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). DAX investors would struggle to say the market backdrop has improved over the past week. Although one could draw some encouragement from some solid US economic data releases, the rise in bond yields there and in Europe was pre-occupying.Continue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Fed?

Pre-FOMC period has seen largest bullish swing in months 19 June 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Since Chairman Bernanke hinted last month that the US Federal Reserve might start winding down its asset-purchase program, markets have taken fright. Higher volatility and meaningful falls ensued in the prices of US stocks and bonds as well as inContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: The long-awaited correction

Domestic equity investors leapt into the market as the German DAX pursued its downward correction last week. This is the finding of Boerse Frankfurt’s latest sentiment survey. Nine percent of the panel of asset managers shifted into the bullish camp over the past five sessions, a period during which the DAX slipped practically back toContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: The DAX must correct – mustn’t it?

There is no doubt about it now: the German DAX is on a tear. It hasn’t just made a marginally higher all-time high; it has left its 2007 peak some 300 points behind. Nor is the rally idiosyncratic; major bourses across the world have also reached multi-year highs, if not all-time highs. Even if oneContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: This time it’s different

15 May 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ‘Stock market rally’, ‘bull market’, or even ‘all-time high’, are all expressions that have long ceased to be reserved for investment professionals. Since the boom in internet stocks in the late 1990s, such references have found their way into dinner party conversations, taxi drivers’ banter, and the background murmurContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: A delayed reaction to DAX’s tumble

Year-low provoked more disquiet than investors let on 2 May 2013. FRANKFURT (Boerse Frankfurt). One of the notable characteristics of the DAX’s corrective decline from the mid-March highs was how little it seemed to influence investor opinion. For most of the past six weeks, the optimism of domestic asset managers on Boerse Frankfurt’s sentiment panelContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: An understandable ‘flash crash’

Investors know better than to catch a falling knife 17 April 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Something resembling a German version of the ‘flash crash’ occurred this morning. In the matter of minutes the benchmark DAX plunged some 200 points to (briefly) record a new low for 2013. There was no obvious catalyst, although unconfirmed reportsContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Crisis; What Crisis?

Media reports overstate investor anxiety 20 March 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). If financial journalists had a vote on Boerse Frankfurt’s DAX sentiment panel, optimism would be in the cellar. The controversial levy on Cypriot bank deposits has provided grist for a media mill that has been starved of eurozone crisis news since Draghi’s by-any-means-necessary speechContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Death by Profit-Taking

13 March 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). ‘Nobody ever died from profit-taking’ was an old market chestnut we heard last week for the first time in at least six months. Certainly, its revival had something to do with the DAX index reaching the 8,000 mark for the first time since 2008. For seasoned investors in GermanContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Reference point makes Italian election look worse

Investors had grappled with the prospect of gridlock two weeks ago 27 February 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Investors have eyed the lofty levels of German blue-chips with thinly-veiled incredulity since the start of the year. Admittedly, there had been a marked reduction of tail-risk in the eurozone crisis, which justified lower risk premiums and higherContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: The Correction that Never Was

20 February 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). On the face of it, German institutional investors have given the domestic equity market a huge vote of confidence. Since last week’s survey there has been a marked bullish swing among members of Boerse Frankfurt’s sentiment panel – so much so that overall optimism, as measured by the CognitrendContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Investors seek a refuge for the correction

6 February 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Fully nine percent of Boerse Frankfurt’s sentiment panel quit the bullish camp over the past week. And there are no prizes for guessing when this selling took place – Monday. Over that single session the DAX index lost 2.5 percent. Admittedly, it was only by the end of theContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Impatient Investors

A DAX correction was welcome – whatever the reason. 23 January 2013. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The DAX index suffered a puzzlingly mid-session setback yesterday. Without any apparent news release or event, it slid 1.5 percent within minutes to the year low. It later emerged that traders had been spooked by an unconfirmed report that GermanContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: An Electoral Red-Herring

Major news headlines have contained something for everyone 7 November 2012. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Equity investors have faced two ‘event risks’ in the week since the previous sentiment poll: the monthly US jobs report and, of course, the US presidential election. At the margins, both may have swung opinion and may explain why Boerse Frankfurt’sContinue Reading

DAX-Sentiment: Are ‘event risks’ bearish?

A deftly-woven September timeline is fraying at the edges The vacation season has left behind an abhorrent vacuum in trading volumes. Brokers are squealing over lost business, funds bemoan tepid inflows and exchanges witness a slump in turnovers. The entire branch is working furiously to get equity investors involved. Even the simple reminder of theContinue Reading


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