About: Joachim Goldberg
Recent Posts by Joachim Goldberg
DAX-Sentiment: Blockupy the Bears?
Investor polarisation increases as the demonstrators move in 16 May 2012. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Today marks the start of a four-day long anti-capitalist demonstration in Frankfurt. Dubbed ‘Blockupy’, the protest aims to literally close down Germany’s financial capital with Occupy support drafted in from across Europe. The city’s bankers have already decided it would beContinue Reading
Tardy Revolt

In a column in the FT recently[1] Martin Taylor, the former Barclays CEO, expressed great surprise that shareholders had not revolted against excessive banker pay much sooner. Of course, the shareholder discontent is a product of the Zeitgeist
Written on May 11, 2012 at 7:41 am
Categories: Economics, Society
Tags: banker pay, gain-loss asymmetry, need for control, Zeitgeist
DAX-Sentiment: Anti-austerity comes in all shapes and sizes
...the rise of the anti-austerity movement at the ballot box seems to have its limits. Stock investors seem to be tolerant of anti-austerity (in the sense of slightly less fiscal rigour in order to reduce the headwinds for growth) when it is done US-style, British-style or even French-style, but they do not cheer it whenContinue Reading
Commuting & Wellbeing

In a country that prides itself on its green initiatives, it sounds almost odd that German personal tax law allows deductions for the costs associated with driving to work. This means the greater the distance between home and the workplace, i.e., the more a motorist chokes the roads and the air, the more he canContinue Reading
Written on April 30, 2012 at 8:20 am
Categories: Behavioural Living, Politics
Tags: loss aversion, mental accounting, paternalism, positional goods, social comparison
Copyrights or a Right to Copy?

Does the copyright protection of ideas have to mean that freedoms are sacrificed in the internet? This is the rather disturbing thought I was left with recently after reading a newspaper editorial that discussed a proposal Germany’s increasingly notorious Pirate (political) Party to scrap intellectual property rights.
Written on April 24, 2012 at 9:08 am
Categories: Politics
Tags: freeloading, inequality, Occupy, saliency
Beauty is a Positional Good

For someone pounding relentlessly on a sports studio cross-trainer early on Sunday morning, a TV report on ‘diet madness’ ought to have been rather reassuring. It seems that regardless of whether it is a called a cabbage-soup diet, Atkins, Weightwatchers, or metabolic-balance
Written on April 18, 2012 at 11:54 am
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: diet, hedonic treadmill, positional goods
Reference Point Roulette

I can easily understand why someone would buy a lottery ticket in the slim hope of getting rich in a single coup. Even though the expected return from this investment is negative, so no economically- rational person should do it, millions of people take the plunge every week. The reason is because the very lowContinue Reading
Written on April 13, 2012 at 8:01 am
Categories: Behavioural Living, Decision-Making
Tags: gambling, loss aversion, lottery, reference point
DAX-Sentiment: Waiting for a pullback
Sceptical DAX investors end the quarter as they began it. 28 March 2012. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). This was, for once, a week where there was no genuinely menacing news out of Germany or the eurozone. True: some peripheral bond spreads have tended to widen and there have been some gloomy commentary published about the SpanishContinue Reading
How Much is Enough?
Yesterday I recounted the sorry tale of Hazel Loveday, the bus driver who quit a lottery syndicate six months before twelve of her fellow drivers cracked a £38 million jackpot. The story apparently intrigued me as much as it did a sample of Daily Mail Online readers. In a survey, the newspaper posed the beggingContinue Reading
Written on March 27, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: altruism, dictatorship game, lottery, regret
Bus Driver Alights at the Wrong Stop
A few days ago twelve bus drivers from the English county of Northamptonshire had a very good reason to celebrate, having won the multi-country lottery "Euro Millions" and claiming more than £38 million (€45 million). The story was all the more newsworthy because it turned out that a fellow driver in the syndicate had droppedContinue Reading
Written on March 26, 2012 at 9:37 am
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: group behaviour, locus of control, lottery, regret
The Problem of a US Recovery
About two weeks ago, an article in the Wall Street Journal aroused market interest by suggesting a new variant of quantitative easing – a sterilised QE3, if you will. Yesterday we learned of the error in that thinking, at least according to renowned interest rate hawk and president of the Dallas Fed, Richard Fisher. AlthoughContinue Reading
Written on March 21, 2012 at 11:26 am
Categories: Markets
Tags: decision-making, Federal Reserve, forecasting, reference point
Collectors Cornered
When I first joined a fidelity program with a credit card company some years ago, I vaguely remember a round-the-world airline ticket on offer for the handsome ‘price’ of one million bonus points. So I began collecting points like crazy. I channelled all of my spending through this sole credit card in order to setContinue Reading
Written on March 20, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: discounting, fidelity program, source effects
When the Pain Becomes Bearable
Things are starting to look very comfortable in the financial markets once again. In the US, the data has been encouraging and the equity markets have now climbed back to pre-crisis levels. In the eurozone, at least the German DAX index has clambered back to 7,200 and the often-feared slump in growth has apparently keptContinue Reading
Written on March 19, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Categories: Politics
Tags: European debt crisis, FTT, rating agencies, Tobin Tax
Beta-Male in an Alpha-Male Sweater
In the animal world, the status of each member of a group is easy to determine. The stag in the forest with the biggest antlers has the best chances with the lady-deer and has privileged access to the group’s resources. Even without a fight, the fearsomeness of the antlers alone is sufficient to identify theContinue Reading
Written on March 14, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Categories: Behavioural Living, Marketing, Society
Tags: positional goods, representative heuristic, status
Positional Luxury
I am often asked whether it is better to show off material wealth, insofar as one has any, or to hide it. I favour the latter, to be honest. I am of the opinion that one should exercise discretion with the display of status symbols, or so-called positional goods. I say this not to spareContinue Reading
Written on March 13, 2012 at 11:55 am
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: positional goods, social status
DAX-Sentiment: A ‘welcome’ correction
Recent market setback is a belated vindication of long-held scepticism “The biggest DAX correction since 2011” was the deadline that graced one German newspaper article this morning. As 2012 is just in its third month, the accolade was easily earned, but for many domestic institutional investors it made welcome reading nonetheless. It sounds counter-intuitive thatContinue Reading
An Odd Notion of Hedging
I read yesterday a financial market commentary suggesting that Japanese exporters, faced with a sharply rising US-dollar versus the yen over the last month, could have tried to unwind their currency hedges. This would mean rebuying the dollars they had already sold in anticipation of overseas sales. In all likelihood, this would also mean aContinue Reading
Written on March 7, 2012 at 8:04 am
Categories: Markets
Tags: hedging, regret aversion, risk-aversion, speculation
Short-Changed
We have long since had our suspicions about how the malaise of the US middle-class came about. It was nonetheless a very sobering experience to be confronted with the naked numbers in a commendable new book that documents the nation’s widening social disparities[1]. The authors chart the startling development of median family pre-tax incomes inContinue Reading
Written on February 28, 2012 at 9:37 am
Categories: Society
Tags: debt, income distribution, inequality, life satisfaction, Occupy, positional goods
Mario Draghi’s Curious Mental Accounting
The International Monetary Fund established last Thursday that it is impossible to significantly reduce the Greek debt without the support of the ECB, whose president remained adamantly against it at the press conference following last week’s Governing Council meeting. Mario Draghi said the ECB cannot accept losses on their Greek holdings, rightly describing this typeContinue Reading
Written on February 13, 2012 at 9:56 am
Categories: Politics
Tags: ECB, mental accounting
Lucky-Lotto Laboratory
A few days ago I read a story in the New York Times about how an entire village cleaned up at Spain's big national Christmas lottery. Sodeto, located about three hours' drive north-west of Barcelona, distributed more than €100 million to its 250 inhabitants, most of them farmers
Written on February 10, 2012 at 8:14 am
Categories: Behavioural Living, Society
Tags: arms race, envy, happiness, lottery, social comparison, well-being
DAX-Sentiment: Pessimists went silently for the exit
Institutional investors refuse to buck the trend any longer, apparently convinced in their optimism by new Fed testimony The medium-term investors polled every week by Börse Frankfurt have apparently rethought their strategies. Perhaps it was the fact that the DAX rose by another 3.5 percent last week, for a total gain of 12 percent sinceContinue Reading
DAX-Sentiment: DAX rally flies below the radar
Investors’ predictions were all confirmed, except one 1 February. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Bearishness among the institutional investors is swiftly becoming a regular fixture on Boerse Frankfurt’s weekly survey panel. Following the first full trading week of 2012, sentiment turned negative and has stayed there ever since. In today’s poll, it stands at a nine-month low,Continue Reading
Smog in the Perfumerie
I have a particular weakness for oriental perfumes, especially the handmade varieties, even though they can be somewhat pricey. So when I stumbled across a Google ad by easyCOSMETIC offering the objects of my desire at an 18 percent discount to regular store prices, I was naturally drawn to it. In reality, there was probablyContinue Reading
Written on February 1, 2012 at 11:58 am
Categories: Behavioural Living, Decision-Making
Tags: mental accounting, shopping
Heavenly Values
At a church in Frankfurt I recently had the opportunity to listen to a debate between Professor Paul Kirchhof, a former Federal Constitutional Court judge, and the former chairman of the Evangelical Church in Germany (EKD), Professor Wolfgang Huber. The topic was the gradual destruction of church and state and the eventual end of institutions.Continue Reading
Written on January 31, 2012 at 8:20 am
Categories: Markets, Society
Tags: adaptation, greed, morality, religion
Don Giovanni: A Tale of (almost) Unpunished Overconfidence
I was at the Frankfurt Opera with my wife on Saturday where Mozart's Don Giovanni was playing for the final time this season. We enjoyed the opera, but I saw Don Giovanni with completely different eyes than the last time I saw it about 30 years ago – back then I had not yet fullyContinue Reading
Written on January 27, 2012 at 10:01 am
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: overconfidence, regret aversion
Lifelong Sport
I had to read in yesterday’s Guardian newspaper that my beloved gym, Fitness First, is in financial difficulty. The sports studio chain, the world’s largest, is in negotiations with its creditor banks to secure a reduction in the interest it pays on loans of over £600 million. Apparently, it is already struggling to meet theContinue Reading
Written on January 25, 2012 at 10:04 am
Categories: Behavioural Living, Decision-Making
Tags: counterparty risk, debt
Are Investment Yields a Human Right?
“Whatever next?” I thought to myself when the New York Times reported that powerful hedge funds were planning to bring a case to the European Court of Human Rights if Greece changed the law to force private bondholders to take losses. Such a step, claim the funds’ lawyers would amount to an infringement of propertyContinue Reading
Written on January 20, 2012 at 10:15 am
Categories: Society
Tags: European debt crisis, Greece, hedge funds, human rights
A Rating Agency to be Feared
I hadn’t planned on climbing back onto my timing-of-rating-agency-downgrade hobby-horse so soon. Sovereign ratings have been crashing and burning at the hands of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch for so long now that that the timing factor was destined for irrelevance. Indeed, in the case of the coveted French triple-A, S&P ‘erroneously’ issued a downgrade noticeContinue Reading
Written on January 16, 2012 at 10:28 am
Categories: Investing
Tags: downgrade, rating agencies, sequence of events
DAX-Sentiment: 2012 Starts Now
New Year rally may have brought more confidence than profits 11 January 2012. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). To be able to look back on five trading sessions where bad economic news was largely absent has been a rare treat for the institutional investors on Börse Frankfurt’s weekly sentiment panel. Last week’s US jobs numbers – heraldedContinue Reading
Non-Trivial Pursuits
I am not sure whether there are more of them these days or whether I just notice them more, but I have the impression that retail loyalty schemes are mushrooming. Whether at the department store, in the supermarket, or at the fuel station, retailers everywhere seem to be offering cards, vouchers and stamps. No doubt,Continue Reading
Written on January 11, 2012 at 10:19 am
Categories: Behavioural Living
Tags: loyalty schemes, Sunk Cost Effect
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