Decision-Making

The Manipulators are Among Us

3. December 2013
Massenauflauf

In my previous blog I described how, if we are not careful, randomly-occurring reference points manage to hijack our decision-making. The case concerned a would-be stock market investor who wondered whether one could still buy the German DAX even though it trades at a new record high. He was obviously desirous to buy, but my introduction of a new, wholly irrelevant reference point (the index level at the start of the year) was enough to undermine this bullishness; it was even enough to provoke a desire to sell stocks!

read more

Are You Really in Control of Your Decision-Making?

29. November 2013
regret

It is typically when stocks markets are at record highs that investment strategists on financial television are asked the question: “Can investors still get in?” Of course, those who have accepted the invitation to appear are often those who are already long; those who missed the move, or who are short, tend to have busier calendars when the TV networks call. So these sound-bites are not necessarily objective, or even representative of the average strategist’s opinion.

read more

Blackout in the spotlight

25. November 2013
Joker

Have you ever had one of those blackouts? One of those moments when you suddenly have no idea what is going on, what is up and what is down? I had one just recently. I stood, pre-dawn, in front of my dressing room mirror and couldn’t remember how to knot a tie. I tried left over right then right over left, but it was hopeless; the decades-old knowledge had seemingly vanished. Mercifully, there were no witnesses to my bafflement and, one double espresso later, I was able to easily recall the Double Windsor.

read more

The Fed Has the Final Word

8. July 2013
Microphone and analyzer

I guess there were not many central bank watchers who expected the latest declaration by ECB chief Mario Draghi. At last week’s press conference, one inattentive journalist was so engrossed in his pre-prepared question as to why the ECB did NOT engage in the kind of forward guidance recently adopted by the new Bank of England governor, he had completed the missed the part where Draghi did precisely that.

read more

Sloth: A Deadly Decision-Making Sin

5. July 2013
Trägheit

An in-house discussion about the Seven Deadly Sins threw up some amusing parallels between these famed lapses of virtue and behavioural finance. It was remarkably easy to associate common errors in investment decision-making with the seven classical sins. Sloth, in particular, played a recurring role: in business decision-making, as in one’s private life, it can be fatal.

read more

Freedom for Me, Myself or I?

11. March 2013
Dissonanz

A online debate about the merits and dangers of nudging – the ‘soft’ paternalism Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein promoted in their 2008 book, ‘Nudge’, came to the brink of degeneration last week. The detractors criticised the insidiousness of the behavioural interventions. Nudgers, they suggested, use crafty psychological manipulation to rob people of their individual freedoms in the pursuit of questionable public policy goals

read more

Naughty Nudgers

6. March 2013
nudge

Economists continue to rail against the kind of libertarian or ‘soft’ paternalism pioneered by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their 2008 book, ‘Nudge’.  A nudge is essentially a method of persuading people to act in a given way by modifying the way the information on which the decisions are to be made, or the alternatives, are presented. The nudgers justify the manipulation with appeals to the individual’s ‘best interests’ or to the ‘greater good’.

read more

The Repairman Always Rings Twice

18. February 2013
spülmaschine

Wretched dishwasher: it stopped running just minutes before the end of the program, leaving the plates in a damp, cold mist. It is always a grim moment when one realises that a call to the repairman is unavoidable. While Siemens’ 24-hour hotline is a nice feature in cases like these, I couldn’t help but wonder what good it was when all it could offer was a repair appointment one week later.

read more

No Grexit from London Luxury Property Market

11. February 2013
property

International investors are fleeing former financial safe-havens in huge numbers this year. Compare this to 2012, when fears of a Greek departure from the eurozone prompted its well-heeled nationals shift their wealth into more economically-sound destinations within the zone, like, Germany, Austria and Finland or, better still, into non-eurozone countries like Switzerland and the UK.

read more

Coffee Mourning

4. February 2013
Meeting

Cost-cutting measures in one stressed investment bank have reached such an extreme that bankers will have to forego a coffee service during their meetings from now on. Admittedly, the saving is hardly likely to felt on the bank’s bottom line; like cancelling the newspaper subscriptions,

read more

Miles and More?

14. January 2013
Schlange stehen

The train has long been my preferred choice for domestic travel. So, as there seem to be fidelity cards for practically everything these days, there is also one for frequent rail travellers like me. For every euro I spend I collect credits for use on tickets and other services provided by the railway operator.

read more

Penny and Cents

7. January 2013
Messerblock

I shop quite often at my local hard-discounter, Penny. It is not just because the store is literally round the corner, but because one can genuinely get good value for money. The recent bonus-points promotion has not escaped my attention either; the store is offering a variety of kitchen knives, not for the manufacturer’s recommended price of €33.99 or €39.99 each, but for just €2.99. Of course, one must bring a few bonus points to the sum – 45 to be exact – and these must first be collected at a rate of one for five euros spent in the store.

read more

On the Tail-End of the Probability Distribution

3. December 2012
Weintatsting

“You can learn a lot about saving money from millionaires,” my mother-in-law used to say as she headed off to Aldi on her shopping trips. I often indulged her food preferences, but when it came to wine I have never been convinced there are cheaper alternatives to Bordeaux that are just as good. I like to think I am not a wine snob, and I do not treat wine labels as status symbols, but quality is important for me. So the idea of being able to find an enjoyable bottle for less than five euros is something I struggle to imagine, especially when much of that price is composed of value-added tax, retail margins and glass.

read more

The (Other) Parable of the Talents

10. October 2012
Münzstapel mini

How many Smarties can you get into a Smart? It is not the first line of a joke; it is a brainteaser of the kind recruiters are increasingly using to upend interview candidates, and to test their capacity for logical thinking. I recently came across another example of such a conundrum

read more

Heaven within Arm’s Reach

8. October 2012
Berg

“Turning back and climbing down is one of the most difficult decisions a mountain climber has to make. Perhaps, the most difficult.”  The Tyrolean mountaineer, Hans Kammerlander, made the point very succinctly. It was only recently, though, that I got a glimpse of just how difficult the decision is to abandon an expedition and to turn back.

read more

A Sausage Thief Stole my Rationality

1. October 2012
Fahrradkorb

The public square at Frankfurt’s ‘Konstablerwache’ is given over every Thursday to a farmers’ market. Produce from across the region is on sale: fruit, vegetables, fresh fish, delicatessen, and dairy products. I have so gotten in the habit of going there after work that Thursday evening has become the unofficial sausage night for the family and me. Recently, I made the mistake of stowing my freshly-purchased lamb-filled ‘wurstchen’ in my bicycle basket while I went to pick up a few more things for the meal. I only turned my back for two minutes and the sausages were gone, pilfered, renditioned.

read more

Anatomy of an Analogy

24. September 2012
Fotolia_7732600_Mud

New York Fed Governor, William Dudley entertained his audience during a recent speech with an analogy about the US central bank’s aggressive monetary policy stance. The US economy, he mused, is like a car stuck in the mud: ‘You don’t stop pushing the moment the wheels start turning – you keep pushing until the car is rolling and is clearly free.’ The reasoning was undeniable. It is obvious that if you stop pushing the car will simply slip back into the mud.

read more

Active Fund Managers are shown the Red Card

10. September 2012
rote Karte

The fund management industry gasped this spring when Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) gutted its £58bn equity division in Edinburgh, sacking most of the managers and analysts, and switching to an essentially passive management structure. Although many observers bemoaned the decision, they could not fault the decision-making. SWIP had conceded shortcomings in its abilities, recognised new developments in the needs of its clients, and so acted consequently. Compare this behaviour to that of another large fund management firm, having encountered probably much the same challenges. It decided instead to so bizarrely incentivise its underperforming active management team that a passive management outcome was all that could possibly result.

read more

More Skin in the Game

18. July 2012
Basketball hände

A personal investment in a fund increases the fund managers’ psychological commitment to the investment decision. Commitment is not be confused with conviction. Unlike the latter, the former is rarely a good thing. Commitment can be thought of as the psychological glue that binds decision-makers to their decisions. When you hear someone described as being ‘married to their position’, what is being discussed is commitment.

read more

Older, but not Bolder

19. June 2012
Münze_mini

If five winners share a lottery payout of two million, how much does each get? Although I arrived at the right answer – 400,000 – quite easily, this might not be the case in 30 or 40 years’ time. In one study, while more than half of subjects aged 53 were able to answer the question correctly, among the 90 year olds only 10 percent could[1]. That physical and mental capacity declines with age is no secret. As it becomes increasingly burdensome to do mental arithmetic, judge probabilities, etc., so it becomes more difficult to understand the risks and consequences of one’s decisions. For this reason, seniors tend to reduce their exposure to risks and avoid making decisions.

read more

How to Influence Recruiters

29. May 2012
Normabweicher

As I write one final graduate program application, I imagine the pool of admissions officers at the university sieving through piles of paper. How does this group possibly determine who should have the opportunity to attend a program from hundreds of applicants, all of whom hold much the same qualifications? What sticks out from the stack that screams ‘accept me!’?

read more

€10,000 for Cancer Diagnosis

21. May 2012
AMEX

I took an unsettling call from lady at American Express the other day. Apparently because I had been a card member for such a long time, she wondered whether I would like to have a second card for my wife. It was only after I bluntly refused that she came to what I now suspect to have been the real reason for the call. She expressed how uncomfortable it was for her to broach this subject, but American Express had tasked her to propose insurance security specifically for life events that are neglected by other insurers because they are unable or unwilling to discuss sensitive issues. Her voice adopted a solemn, gravelly timbre: “No, Mr Goldberg,” she choked, “this is not a comfortable subject, but one that must be discussed.” I braced myself.

read more

Legal Landslide

18. May 2012
Justitia

My friend has just switched jobs. She is a lawyer and decided to accept the offer of a former colleague to join him at his new firm. Things like that happen all the time in the law business. In this case, though, she was not the only one to have been lured away – many members of staff received an offer of a job at the new firm and all of them, like her, wanted to accept. Wary of the huge shock that at mass exodus would have on the firm’s boss and on the remaining staff, my friend wondered whether there was any way to mitigate the ‘damage’ so that good relationships wouldn’t be spoiled nor ill-feelings left behind.

read more

Japan’s Greying Grey Cells

9. May 2012
Japan Goldenes Haus

Japan has been synonymous with technology for decades. More recently though, debt, deflation, and now demographics, have taken their toll on this image. According to the latest figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the Japanese population shrank by more than a quarter-million people last year – the third decline since 2005.  The number of births, at 1.07 million, marked a record low, and this was even not the most striking figure in the data set.

read more

Not Really Sunk with Hollande

8. May 2012
Elysee

Before the results of French elections were known much ink was used to speculate how the election of socialist Francois Hollande would lead to the shift in Franco- German axis on the issue of growth and austerity. Essentially Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy have invested a lot of political capital and time in the pro-austerity strategy with an aim of solving the crisis.  So despite an increasing number of economic observers having now recognised that austerity in a static growth environment can only be recessionary, it has been difficult for political leaders them to change their stance.

read more

Reference Point Roulette

13. April 2012
Roulette

I can easily understand why someone would buy a lottery ticket in the slim hope of getting rich in a single coup. Even though the expected return from this investment is negative, so no economically- rational person should do it, millions of people take the plunge every week. The reason is because the very low probability of hitting the jackpot is likely to be perceived as greater than it really is. In addition, the thing one buys with a lottery ticket, above all else, is the right to dream.

read more

Smog in the Perfumerie

1. February 2012

I have a particular weakness for oriental perfumes, especially the handmade varieties, even though they can be somewhat pricey. So when I stumbled across a Google ad by easyCOSMETIC offering the objects of my desire at an 18 percent discount to regular store prices, I was naturally drawn to it. In reality, there was probably nothing accidental about this ‘discovery’; Google undoubtedly put this ad under my nose in full knowledge that I like these things. Nonetheless, even after I had sought out the next best internet offer, the price was still nine percent cheaper. At least, this is what I thought at first.

read more

Lifelong Sport

25. January 2012

I had to read in yesterday’s Guardian newspaper that my beloved gym, Fitness First, is in financial difficulty. The sports studio chain, the world’s largest, is in negotiations with its creditor banks to secure a reduction in the interest it pays on loans of over £600 million. Apparently, it is already struggling to meet the repayments. The report reminded me of the lifelong membership (access to all studios worldwide) that Fitness First offered in 2008 for the handsome fee of 4000 euros. Compared to the typical monthly subscription fee for established members of 80 euros, the figure seemed reasonable and, without taking foregone interest rates into consideration, subscribers would reach their breakeven after four or five years.

read more

Tripping Over Small Probabilities

24. January 2012

I know the feeling all too well – the sudden realisation that one’s keys are lost. The numbing sensation with each passing minute that one’s access has been denied to yet another place: home, office, locker, mailbox, and bike shed. So when I read my colleagues recent blog post about a friend robbed by a junkie, I was painfully reminded of an episode two years ago when my keys vanished.

read more

Negotiating from a Losing Position

19. December 2011
Value function

Some consider the eurozone debt crisis to be the result of a fundamental design flaw. They may be right. But then, when in political history has any project been done completely right from the outset. Political and financial frameworks have always had to be modified or adjusted as a function of new events or opinions. What marks out this particular crisis is that the decision-makers seem unable to make a single meaningful step further. Two years and 15 summits into the crisis and we are still engaged in fire-fighting.

read more