Markets

DAX-Sentiment: EU-summit disappoints, but does not annoy

15. December 2011

Brussels outcome deflated dollar-based DAX investors more than domestics.

To put in place, before Christmas, the basis for a lasting and definitive solution to the eurozone debt crisis was the expressed wish of many EU officials at the end of last week. Many market participants shared these hopes even though, for a group that usually attaches great importance to track records, the evidence from previous EU summits was not encouraging. What finally came out of Brussels, however, fell well short of the promised ‘comprehensive solution’...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6419

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Goldmine Anyone?

13. December 2011

Gold mining stocks have a less than a shining reputation among precious metal investors. The expression ‘lame duck’ is appropriate for describing its performance this year. The NYSE Acra Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which includes the stars of the sector, currently stands at the year’s opening price. Perhaps it is for this reason that so many observers seem to relish at the idea of buying in. “Goldmines are unbeatably cheap”, scream the advertising slogans, “hopelessly undervalued”; “cheaper than ever”.  Good luck with that one. The reality is that there is hardly any serious precious metal operator who hasn’t, at one time or another, already tried to exploit this apparent undervaluation.

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The Unbiased Advisor

9. December 2011

Expectation management is a tough task when one is the president of the ECB. Mario Draghi yesterday had to admit to being “surprised by the implicit meaning” that was given to his comments in the European Parliament last week when he said the ECB could follow faster fiscal union with “other elements.” His admittedly vague references were widely interpreted as a sign that the Bank would embark on more aggressive sovereign bond purchases as soon as the EU leaders make a first step on the fiscal side. But this was not meant.

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DAX-Sentiment: Don’t let the euro's lights go out

8. December 2011

Investors hopes are pinned on an imminent end to the euro crisis

The euro has not been shining as brightly as it used to recently. So a group of technicians opened it up and fixed it. Now it glows like new. Of course, we are talking about the giant euro sign that stands in front of the European Central Bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt and the technicians were council workers who yesterday set about replacing the neon lamps. To watch them work, it was difficult not to make an analogy with the efforts of eurozone leaders to fix the economic woes of the single-currency area. Who will steady the ladder? Who will climb the rungs? And, most importantly, who will pay for the lamps? There is one point, however, that Frankfurt tourists and international investors will probably agree on: the time to fix the euro is now...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6396

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DAX-Sentiment: Optimism is as volatile as prices

1. December 2011

The proximity of the year-end has been no reason for DAX investors to sit on their hands

The optimism investors revealed in today’s poll has been palpable in the market since the start of the week. Although the news about the eurozone debt crisis has soured even further and the press reports that regulators, banks, businesses, lawyers and accountants are now busily preparing for the break-up of the eurozone, investors remain confident that the EU finance ministers will come up with an eleventh-hour solution. Why?...
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DAX-Sentiment: New bears need new information

24. November 2011

23 November 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Domestic DAX investors have embarked on another sudden change in tack this week. After a fortnight, during which sceptics had tended to drift back into a stock market that seemed immune to the surrounding economic ills, the bears have returned. Some six percent of Börse Frankfurt’s survey panel have jumped from the neutral into the bearish camp. Similarly, bulls have shrunk some three percentage points, also in favour of the bearish group...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6328

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DAX-Sentiment: Does the eurozone worst-case include QE?

17. November 2011

The pessimists’ gloomiest eurozone forecasts have been realised, except one: the DAX itself.

16 November 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Domestic DAX investors have been prepared for the worst case in the eurozone debt crisis for a long time. According to our Bull/Bear-Index, their confidence in the outlook for German blue chips has been steadily eroded over the last two months by news of austerity, haircuts and recession. Just a fortnight ago, their gloominess reached a new extreme, one of the lowest sentiment readings of the year.
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DAX-Sentiment: When Bad News is Not Bad Enough

10. November 2011

9 November 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Just one week ago we reported on lowest level optimism among domestic DAX investors in six months. It was not hard to understand what was troubling them. It was the same thing that had been steadily gnawing away at their enthusiasm for German blue chips since the start of September: the eurozone debt crisis. Bear in mind that investors have grown accustomed to a high level of uncertainty over the course of recent months. So, to express such a gloomy view, the panel in Börse Frankfurt’s weekly survey must have really thought not only that the crisis was going to worsen, but that it was going to worsen at a faster pace than it had in the past...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6282

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DAX-Sentiment: The Big Short for Q4

3. November 2011

DAX investors have spent the last few weeks building up their most bearish stance since the spring.

Take a cursory look at the development of the sentiment index since the market bottom in September and one can testify to a clearly definable pattern: throughout the recovery, investors have become decreasingly optimistic. Already several weeks ago we highlighted the growing conviction among this group that the rally was of the dead-cat variety.

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6261

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DAX-Sentiment: Trend of shrinking optimism continues

27. October 2011

Although the vast majority of DAX trading since the last poll took place at prices that were also available one week earlier, investors became less optimistic. Indeed, the domestic investors on the panel now express their lowest levels of optimism since the summer downswing got underway in the first week of August....

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6245

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DAX-Sentiment: Optimism shrinks further

20. October 2011

Investors have already abandoned the idea of a year-end rally and are firmly focussed on the bear-market rally.

FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The popular belief that the recent DAX upswing is little more than a dead-cat-bounce, seemed to be confirmed in the results of today’s survey. Börse Frankfurt’s weekly poll shows that domestic institutional investors, on balance, took advantage of the market’s recent foray above the 6,000 mark to reduce their exposure...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6228

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DAX-Sentiment: Domestic investors have ‘learned’ to distrust the DAX

13. October 2011

Rather than make another 180-degree change in their beliefs, many investors have preferred to use the recent stock market strength to express their scepticism.

FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). An almost ten-percent move in five trading days is a DAX move that investors have become very increasingly accustomed to since the summer; there have been no end of them between the Deutsche Börse’s weekly sentiment surveys. But this one seems to have taken many by surprise – as indeed has the abrupt revival of the many base metals and the oil price. Bewildered, one commentator categorised the stock market rally as ‘contrary to the fundamentals’. This is because the news over the period has continued to be dominated by concerns about deteriorating global growth, the eurozone’s in particular.

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6211

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DAX-Sentiment: Steam room too hot? What about a cold shower?

29. September 2011

The stock market volatility has taken its toll on DAX investors. Many of them simply wanted out.

28 September 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). DAX investors have had to endure yet another week where they have been obliged to hop between a hot steam room and the cold shower. Immediately after last week’s survey, which showed a reduced but still determined optimism, the blue-chip index plunged ten percent, practically back to the year’s low. From there, it recovered the entire loss just as quickly as it had been shed. This was the second round-trip across this 600-point range since the start of the month – enough to upset the blood pressure of even the most seasoned market operators...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6181

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DAX-Sentiment: If there was panic in the market, it is not visible here

8. September 2011

Investors waiting for a post-August rebound have discovered that September could be just as challenging, but they have not lost their nerve. Even as the market weakened, they added to their existing bullish positions. The result is a Bull/Bear-Index at a five-year high...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6120

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Selective ECB Decision-Making

7. September 2011

Another month, another ECB rate decision. This time we know that the Governing Council will review its inflation outlook and, as a consequence, its current rate-tightening path. A number of analysts, including one Nobel laureate, believe the Bank should take back the two hikes already implemented since April

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The Demise of the Swiss Franc

6. September 2011

The rise in the Swiss National Bank’s currency reserves in August by the equivalent of CHF70bn, or 40 percent, left me with an unsettling feeling when the news was published this morning, especially given the renewed decline in the value of these reserves since the start of September. But the announcement now that the central bank intends to defend an exchange rate of 1.20 versus the euro using unlimited resources, confirms that this feeling is here to stay. The SNB is going to stand alone versus the rest of the world?

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Has Gold Lost its Gleam?

26. August 2011

Full disclosure: I have a long-position in gold. Presumably just like many of my compatriots, I keep gold for security – not for speculation – in case something goes horribly wrong in the eurozone or out in the world.

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DAX-Sentiment: Correction went too far for investors

25. August 2011

24 August. German fund managers weren’t intimidated by the recent equity-market weakness. They entered into dip-buying strategies this week to push our Bull/Bear Index to its third highest reading of the year...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6089

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Fatal Free Lunch

22. August 2011

Japan and Switzerland presently suffer from massive capital inflows, and their respective currencies have appreciated significantly over the past 18 months. Interestingly, commentators have highlighted the rally in the Swiss franc as an indicator of capital outflows from the funding-plagued eurozone, while ignoring the fact that

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Venezuela’s gold versus the non-noble elements

19. August 2011

Venezuela wants to call its gold reserves back home. It is certainly exemplary of the President to socialise the profits; nowadays most of the other world leaders are doing the opposite. But is it such a good idea to repatriate all that precious metal?

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DAX-Sentiment: Consolidation is likely

18. August 2011

17 August 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). This week’s survey from the Börse Frankfurt revealed a story that was nearly inevitable: the influx of optimism from those who were bargain-hunting right up until last week’s poll is all but gone this week. Some two-thirds of those actors went directly into the bear camp, and the others stepped to the sidelines. The size of this shift suggests that our panel of medium-term investors were rewarded for their courage...

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The Invisible Hand of the Market

15. August 2011

 

The question of whether the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) indeed exists is really bothering me now. Some swear up and down that there is a rapid task-force that protects the markets, and there are others who will wink and tell you that the Group obviously hasn’t been all that successful.

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Secret Saviour

15. August 2011

The equity markets have finally begun to calm down after two weeks of crisis. The Fed’s announcement to hold rates exceptionally low until at least mid-2013 didn’t have all that much of a positive effect; especially while the official FOMC statement also contained the word ‘likely’.

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Sheep in Wolves' Clothing

12. August 2011

The hunt is on to rid financial markets of the sinister element, and France, Spain, Italy and Belgium are leading the chase with a ban on short-selling. The measure demonstrates the European Union’s issues with unity itself, as other nations clearly judge these speculators differently, but I am even more distressed that powerless officials think they can regain a grip on control with a frivolous 15-day interdiction.

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DAX-Sentiment: Controlled resistance against uncontrolled panic

11. August 2011

10 August 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Admittedly, what equity traders were expected to deal with this year in the middle of their usual summer-holiday period was no day at the beach. The exponentially escalating credit crisis in the eurozone and the contentious US debt-ceiling debate were enough to fray any seasoned investor’s nerves, but a downgrade last weekend of the world’s largest debt pool was simply the last straw.

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The Fed’s Temporary Relief

10. August 2011

The global economy has relapsed during its recovery from the 2007 crisis. Quantitative easing and emergency liquidity instruments worked for a while but, ultimately, the efforts of central banks and governments haven’t yet cured the US unemployment problem or the eurozone’s funding crisis.

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Limiting Losses, Non-stop

9. August 2011

While writing my last blog over stop-losses I could not have imagined how quickly the theme would become relevant. In the meantime, any DAX investor with discipline and a 10-percent risk-limit would have already exited the market.

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Panic Foretold

8. August 2011

 

Global stock markets shed some $2.5 trillion in value last week, prompting a spate of news entries under the headline ‘Panic’.  However, the development should not have come as a surprise to most commentators, whether they were experienced financial market observers or not. Indeed, the majority of market participants have been asking themselves how the equities have maintained such levels for so long. In other words, what happened last week should have taken place over the past few months, but the direction of the move was correct.

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DAX-Sentiment: The August 2nd Opportunity

28. July 2011

This week’s survey at the Börse Frankfurt shows that seven percent of the medium-term investors polled fled the bull camp, with half of them entering bearish positions and the other half staying neutral. Although the DAX gained an impressive one-and-one-half percent over the previous week, it only climbed back to the middle of a broad multi-month range, roughly between 7000 and 7600 – not really levels that could justify profit-taking. The Bull/Bear Index slipped back almost to this year’s average. So, considering that the market easily absorbed this week’s sales, it appears that long-term capital has re-entered the DAX...

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=44&NewsID=6026

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A Concrete Barn Door

12. July 2011

Another big quake shook Japan over the weekend. Mercifully, this time, there was no major damage. Since the catastrophe in March, there is seemingly no let-up in the number of tremors that register north of six on the Richter scale. This explains the Japanese government’s urgency in seeking measures to counter the risks of a future tsunami.

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