I was at the Frankfurt Opera with my wife on Saturday where Mozart's Don Giovanni was playing for the final time this season. We enjoyed the opera, but I saw Don Giovanni with completely different eyes than the last time I saw it about 30 years ago – back then I had not yet fully engaged with behavioural economics or behavioural living. You've heard of Don Giovanni, the rogue with all the women? In Spanish, he's Don Juan, the great seducer whose infidelity destroys not only the life of his wife, Doña Elvira, but also those of countless other women. (more...)
Posts Tagged ‘overconfidence’
Don Giovanni: A Tale of (almost) Unpunished Overconfidence
Friday, January 27th, 2012Hostage-Taking in the Chamber of Horrors
Friday, September 16th, 2011In an earlier post, I reflected on the malign impact of seeing countless scenarios of economic doom and gloom circulated primarily in the internet. Because of the human tendency to see each grisly prediction, not as a as duplication of the previous, but as a confirmation, repeated exposure pushes people towards an opinion that is more and more extreme. This might also explain the present gold boom and the bizarre situation where some investors almost wish for a fire-and-brimstone outcome just so they can be a winner with gold. (more...)
Investment Lesson #2 from the Women’s World Cup
Thursday, June 30th, 2011‘You do it.’ ‘No, you.’
When it comes to shooting a penalty, my female teammates don’t exactly rush to the front of the queue. I’m an enthusiastic soccer player, but I take absolutely no pleasure in taking penalties, what with all the pressure. Most of the team sees it the same way. In stark contrast, the men at my club are all impatient to have a go at it. (more...)
The Winners, Cursed
Friday, December 17th, 2010Yet another amusement arcade has just opened in my neighbourhood. This one stays open 24/7. I have seen the boss; he is no fly-by-night. And, in contrast to his clients, he is always very elegantly dressed. Business is obviously booming. (more...)
Goldman vs. Gold-women
Thursday, September 16th, 2010An ‘unchecked gender bias pervades Goldman Sachs’s corporate culture’ say three former employees in a legal action they lodged yesterday against the company. They want to turn the case into a class action suit, accusing the bank of underpaying and under-promoting women. The story prompted a little debate in our office this morning, which resulted in the question of who is better at decision-making. Who makes a better banker – women or men? (more...)
Faulty Forecasting
Thursday, September 9th, 2010You are asked for a stock market forecast. For the sake of argument: where will the Dow be at the year-end? You are bullish, but you know the market hasn’t gone anywhere this year, so you give a point that is higher than the current 10,400, but not so high that the prediction is perceived as unattainable within the time window: 11,500. It sounds plausible, but you realise it isn’t serious. I mean, how on earth can you know? (more...)
